Here is week 11:

Notes on the results:

  1. By this point in the season a few things were becoming clear: Spurs were genuinely good. Arsenal and City were the main title contenders. Manchester United and Chelsea were in trouble. These results added to that narrative.
  2. That being said, City’s problem all season long has been inconsistency and that also was on display. They conceded an awful goal to Norwich and were somewhat fortunate to beat a relegation candidate at home. That is… not great.
  3. All the Everton fans who wanted Bizarro David Moyes Football when they had David Moyes have gotten their request. But this week it actually worked out OK for them.
  4. This was one of Watford’s better results of the season, severely limiting West Ham’s chances and scoring a couple nice goals to defeat a good Hammers team.

How the model has done:

  1. Week 1: 5 correct results, 5 incorrect results—but one incorrect result was .8-.9 on ExpG and 0-1 in reality and another was .7-.8 on ExpG and 2-2 in reality. So not a bad week by any stretch if you basically grant those two as correct results because of how close the margins are.
  2. Week 2: 9 correct results, 1 incorrect result—and the one incorrect result .7-.6 on ExpG and 0-0 in reality. So that is basically 10 correct results, actually.
  3. Week 3: Only four correct results and six incorrect results, but there were a lot of really wacky draws this week.
  4. Week 4: Another week with only four correct results, but also another week with a lot of wacky results.
  5. Week 5: Eight correct results, with another “incorrect” result when the ExpG gap between teams is .1 in a game that ended in a draw. So basically nine correct results.
  6. Week 6: Four correct results and a handful of close results that are to be expected. The biggest oddball result is the City v West Ham result.
  7. Week 7: Six correct results, but nearly all of them from matches where one side clearly dominated the other.
  8. Week 8: Six correct results, but a couple close ones as well where ExpG is separated by .1 and the match ended in a draw.
  9. Week 9: Six correct results plus a narrow miss on Spurs-Liverpool that is close enough we may not even want to call it a miss.
  10. Week 10: Eight correct results.
  11. Week 11: Seven correct results, plus a draw in a game where the xG difference was .1.

If you have questions about how this series works or about expected goals (ExpG) more generally, review our first post in this series.

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