Here is week 13:

Notes on this week:

  • “The Payet effect” on full display for West Ham here. No Payet and they get smoked by Spurs.
  • United’s luck was still going strong at this point as they won a match they had little business winning at Vicarage Road.
  • This may go down as week 2 of “Good Leicester” instead of “Lucky Leicester.” Two straight outstanding defensive performances from Ranieri’s men.
  • This is also a great week to look at for a classic Bad Pellegrini City match. In the three years he’s been at the club, Pellegrini’s City have had 3-4 inexplicably bad games every year, it seems like. This is one of the worst.

How the model has done:

  1. Week 1: 5 correct results, 5 incorrect results—but one incorrect result was .8-.9 on ExpG and 0-1 in reality and another was .7-.8 on ExpG and 2-2 in reality. So not a bad week by any stretch if you basically grant those two as correct results because of how close the margins are.
  2. Week 2: 9 correct results, 1 incorrect result—and the one incorrect result .7-.6 on ExpG and 0-0 in reality. So that is basically 10 correct results, actually.
  3. Week 3: Only four correct results and six incorrect results, but there were a lot of really wacky draws this week.
  4. Week 4: Another week with only four correct results, but also another week with a lot of wacky results.
  5. Week 5: Eight correct results, with another “incorrect” result when the ExpG gap between teams is .1 in a game that ended in a draw. So basically nine correct results.
  6. Week 6: Four correct results and a handful of close results that are to be expected. The biggest oddball result is the City v West Ham result.
  7. Week 7: Six correct results, but nearly all of them from matches where one side clearly dominated the other.
  8. Week 8: Six correct results, but a couple close ones as well where ExpG is separated by .1 and the match ended in a draw.
  9. Week 9: Six correct results plus a narrow miss on Spurs-Liverpool that is close enough we may not even want to call it a miss.
  10. Week 10: Eight correct results.
  11. Week 11: Seven correct results, plus a draw in a game where the xG difference was .1.
  12. Week 12: Four correct results, plus a few close results on draws.
  13. Week 13: Eight correct results, one of the misses is the WBA-Arsenal match, which was just a really flukey result.

If you have questions about how this series works or about expected goals (ExpG) more generally, review our first post in this series.

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