Week 7:

Notes on this week’s results:

  1. Caley’s model really did a fantastic job from the start of showing Tottenham’s quality. Once again, note the lack of high-quality scoring chances for City in this game. There’s simply nothing happening for them in that advanced central area—an area that, incidentally, is where City typically dominate. Not so against Spurs.
  2. Good Leicester still hasn’t emerged at this point in the season. Arsenal absolutely trounce them at the King Power, once again reinforcing the point that much of Leicester’s early season success was more about luck than genuine class. That fact has changed dramatically since then, of course, but Leicester rode their luck hard early in the season. When they met Arsenal, that luck couldn’t save them from the Gunners’ formidable attack.
  3. United had a genuinely good showing against Sunderland.
  4. Chelsea continued to struggle with the only reason they so much as drew being the quality of Willian.

How the model has done:

  1. Week 1: 5 correct results, 5 incorrect results—but one incorrect result was .8-.9 on ExpG and 0-1 in reality and another was .7-.8 on ExpG and 2-2 in reality. So not a bad week by any stretch if you basically grant those two as correct results because of how close the margins are.
  2. Week 2: 9 correct results, 1 incorrect result—and the one incorrect result .7-.6 on ExpG and 0-0 in reality. So that is basically 10 correct results, actually.
  3. Week 3: Only four correct results and six incorrect results, but there were a lot of really wacky draws this week.
  4. Week 4: Another week with only four correct results, but also another week with a lot of wacky results.
  5. Week 5: Eight correct results, with another “incorrect” result when the ExpG gap between teams is .1 in a game that ended in a draw. So basically nine correct results.
  6. Week 6: Four correct results and a handful of close results that are to be expected. The biggest oddball result is the City v West Ham result.
  7. Week 7: Six correct results, but nearly all of them from matches where one side clearly dominated the other.

If you have questions about how this series works or about expected goals (ExpG) more generally, review our first post in this series.

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