Here is week 11:
Notes on the results:
- By this point in the season a few things were becoming clear: Spurs were genuinely good. Arsenal and City were the main title contenders. Manchester United and Chelsea were in trouble. These results added to that narrative.
- That being said, City’s problem all season long has been inconsistency and that also was on display. They conceded an awful goal to Norwich and were somewhat fortunate to beat a relegation candidate at home. That is… not great.
- All the Everton fans who wanted Bizarro David Moyes Football when they had David Moyes have gotten their request. But this week it actually worked out OK for them.
- This was one of Watford’s better results of the season, severely limiting West Ham’s chances and scoring a couple nice goals to defeat a good Hammers team.
How the model has done:
- Week 1: 5 correct results, 5 incorrect results—but one incorrect result was .8-.9 on ExpG and 0-1 in reality and another was .7-.8 on ExpG and 2-2 in reality. So not a bad week by any stretch if you basically grant those two as correct results because of how close the margins are.
- Week 2: 9 correct results, 1 incorrect result—and the one incorrect result .7-.6 on ExpG and 0-0 in reality. So that is basically 10 correct results, actually.
- Week 3: Only four correct results and six incorrect results, but there were a lot of really wacky draws this week.
- Week 4: Another week with only four correct results, but also another week with a lot of wacky results.
- Week 5: Eight correct results, with another “incorrect” result when the ExpG gap between teams is .1 in a game that ended in a draw. So basically nine correct results.
- Week 6: Four correct results and a handful of close results that are to be expected. The biggest oddball result is the City v West Ham result.
- Week 7: Six correct results, but nearly all of them from matches where one side clearly dominated the other.
- Week 8: Six correct results, but a couple close ones as well where ExpG is separated by .1 and the match ended in a draw.
- Week 9: Six correct results plus a narrow miss on Spurs-Liverpool that is close enough we may not even want to call it a miss.
- Week 10: Eight correct results.
- Week 11: Seven correct results, plus a draw in a game where the xG difference was .1.
If you have questions about how this series works or about expected goals (ExpG) more generally, review our first post in this series.