Expected Goal data for Week 5 of the 2015-16 Premier League below:
A few observations about this week of matches:
- United and Chelsea were already showing major red flags even this early in the year. United lost on ExpG to a pretty poor Liverpool team that only created one chance of note. Chelsea, meanwhile, lost again on ExpG, this time to a Roberto Martinez team whose philosophy this season can be summed as “LOL what’s defending?”
- Arsenal and City were establishing their title credentials this season from the early days of the campaign. This round of fixtures was the first after the transfer window closed and after the international break so this is really when we’re seeing the teams we’ll see for the rest of the year. And both Arsenal and City were incredible, though both also won by far narrower margins than you’d expect given their dominance, which also foreshadowed many of the issues the two teams would have this season.
- Spurs and Leicester rescued late results after under-performing.
- Finally, Newcastle, Sunderland, and Villa already look bad while Watford, Norwich, and Bournemouth all look decent enough to have a shot at survival. Again, the ExpG data has born out these trends over the season.
Also, here’s a recap of how ExpG has done week by week:
- Week 1: 5 correct results, 5 incorrect results—but one incorrect result was .8-.9 on ExpG and 0-1 in reality and another was .7-.8 on ExpG and 2-2 in reality. So not a bad week by any stretch if you basically grant those two as correct results because of how close the margins are.
- Week 2: 9 correct results, 1 incorrect result—and the one incorrect result .7-.6 on ExpG and 0-0 in reality. So that is basically 10 correct results, actually.
- Week 3: Only four correct results and six incorrect results, but there were a lot of really wacky draws this week.
- Week 4: Another week with only four correct results, but also another week with a lot of wacky results.
- Week 5: Eight correct results, with another “incorrect” result when the ExpG gap between teams is .1 in a game that ended in a draw. So basically nine correct results.
Also, if you need more information on ExpG and advanced stats more generally, start with the introduction post to this series. Finally, again, many thanks to Michael Caley for his generosity in sharing this data on Twitter and for allowing me to use it in this way. Give him a follow here and don’t miss his work with the Washington Post, Howler, and ESPN FC.