Here is the expected goals data for week 6 of the 2015-16 Premier League. As always, thanks to Michael Caley for sharing it and allowing me to use it in this way:
A few comments on this week’s results:
- Liverpool’s poor finishing hurt them this week. This is, incidentally, one of the holes in Benteke’s game more generally. He scores lots of golazo-type goals (and has continued to do so for Liverpool) but his general finishing ability is much less consistent. Because of those golazos, he usually is close to matching his ExpG numbers, but if he could become a more consistent finisher, he would instantly become a far more valuable striker, particularly given his frame and ability as a target man.
- This was one of the first games where it was apparent that Spurs may have something special. Note that Palace simply doesn’t create much in the central attacking area. They have two chances, only one of which is of any real quality. As James Yorke noted for Stats Bomb, Lloris has only had to make more than five saves in a single match once this season. That trend was there all along, but it really becomes pronounced for Spurs starting around this fixture and moving forward.
- There’s something of a false dawn with that Arsenal result. The Gunners ran into an old school Mourinho set up and couldn’t create anything—one of the only times this year that has happened. Chelsea, meanwhile scored two goals and didn’t convert their best chance of the game. At this point it looked as if the Blues might turn things around, but that, of course, isn’t what ended up happening.
- At this point in the season we still kinda had fun-stupid-lucky Leicester rather than the more compact, organized side we’ve seen more recently.
How the model has done:
- Week 1: 5 correct results, 5 incorrect results—but one incorrect result was .8-.9 on ExpG and 0-1 in reality and another was .7-.8 on ExpG and 2-2 in reality. So not a bad week by any stretch if you basically grant those two as correct results because of how close the margins are.
- Week 2: 9 correct results, 1 incorrect result—and the one incorrect result .7-.6 on ExpG and 0-0 in reality. So that is basically 10 correct results, actually.
- Week 3: Only four correct results and six incorrect results, but there were a lot of really wacky draws this week.
- Week 4: Another week with only four correct results, but also another week with a lot of wacky results.
- Week 5: Eight correct results, with another “incorrect” result when the ExpG gap between teams is .1 in a game that ended in a draw. So basically nine correct results.
- Week 6: Four correct results and a handful of close results that are to be expected. The biggest oddball result is the City v West Ham result.
Remember, if you need a refresher on how all this works, start here.