Week 8:

A few comments on the results:

  1. Chelsea’s stagnant attack showed up in a big way this week. .4 ExpG against Southampton at home is not getting it done. It’s no surprise that Mourinho ended up losing his job.
  2. You can tell a lot about how toothless Tony Pulis’s West Bromwich Albion is from the fact that they managed .3 ExpG against Crystal Palace, one of the league’s worst defensive clubs.
  3. Speaking of bad defenses, Newcastle gave up six to City and the Citizens missed two or three of their best chances.
  4. If the title comes down to Spurs vs Arsenal, this will be one of the pivotal weekends of the season. Arsenal tore apart Manchester United’s defense while Spurs beat Swansea handily on ExpG but only drew due to a devastating Swans counter and a fluke Harry Kane own goal.

How the model has done:

  1. Week 1: 5 correct results, 5 incorrect results—but one incorrect result was .8-.9 on ExpG and 0-1 in reality and another was .7-.8 on ExpG and 2-2 in reality. So not a bad week by any stretch if you basically grant those two as correct results because of how close the margins are.
  2. Week 2: 9 correct results, 1 incorrect result—and the one incorrect result .7-.6 on ExpG and 0-0 in reality. So that is basically 10 correct results, actually.
  3. Week 3: Only four correct results and six incorrect results, but there were a lot of really wacky draws this week.
  4. Week 4: Another week with only four correct results, but also another week with a lot of wacky results.
  5. Week 5: Eight correct results, with another “incorrect” result when the ExpG gap between teams is .1 in a game that ended in a draw. So basically nine correct results.
  6. Week 6: Four correct results and a handful of close results that are to be expected. The biggest oddball result is the City v West Ham result.
  7. Week 7: Six correct results, but nearly all of them from matches where one side clearly dominated the other.
  8. Week 8: Six correct results, but a couple close ones as well where ExpG is separated by .1 and the match ended in a draw.

If you have questions about how this series works or about expected goals (ExpG) more generally, review our first post in this series.

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