Week 9:


  1. The Newcastle result is one of the weirdest of the season, with them massively beating their xG total for the game. As Caley noted, much of the credit there goes to Wijnaldum.
  2. This is one of a handful of results that Spurs will likely regret if they end up missing out on the title by a couple points. This was the first game of the Jurgen Klopp era at Liverpool and, though there weren’t a lot of chances, the game was there for Spurs.
  3. Arsenal and City have the best attacking talent in the league and when they face promotion teams early in the season that becomes quickly apparent. Great performances for both of them.

How the model has done:

  1. Week 1: 5 correct results, 5 incorrect results—but one incorrect result was .8-.9 on ExpG and 0-1 in reality and another was .7-.8 on ExpG and 2-2 in reality. So not a bad week by any stretch if you basically grant those two as correct results because of how close the margins are.
  2. Week 2: 9 correct results, 1 incorrect result—and the one incorrect result .7-.6 on ExpG and 0-0 in reality. So that is basically 10 correct results, actually.
  3. Week 3: Only four correct results and six incorrect results, but there were a lot of really wacky draws this week.
  4. Week 4: Another week with only four correct results, but also another week with a lot of wacky results.
  5. Week 5: Eight correct results, with another “incorrect” result when the ExpG gap between teams is .1 in a game that ended in a draw. So basically nine correct results.
  6. Week 6: Four correct results and a handful of close results that are to be expected. The biggest oddball result is the City v West Ham result.
  7. Week 7: Six correct results, but nearly all of them from matches where one side clearly dominated the other.
  8. Week 8: Six correct results, but a couple close ones as well where ExpG is separated by .1 and the match ended in a draw.
  9. Week 9: Six correct results plus a narrow miss on Spurs-Liverpool that is close enough we may not even want to call it a miss.

If you have questions about how this series works or about expected goals (ExpG) more generally, review our first post in this series.

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