Here is Week 10:

Notes on the results:

  1. This was the first legitimately dominant performance from Spurs as they absolutely dismantled a Bournemouth squad that has turned out to be very strong relative to their pre-season expectations.
  2. The Manchester derby was… not great. It’s a good reminder that even when the LVG era has not seemed like a total disaster at United, it’s still been a far cry from what the fans would like. This result perhaps also explains why tomorrow’s Manchester Derby is such a, relatively speaking, minor affair.
  3. This was another match where Mourinho’s Chelsea was unlucky to lose, but also didn’t particularly deserve a win.

How the model has done:

  1. Week 1: 5 correct results, 5 incorrect results—but one incorrect result was .8-.9 on ExpG and 0-1 in reality and another was .7-.8 on ExpG and 2-2 in reality. So not a bad week by any stretch if you basically grant those two as correct results because of how close the margins are.
  2. Week 2: 9 correct results, 1 incorrect result—and the one incorrect result .7-.6 on ExpG and 0-0 in reality. So that is basically 10 correct results, actually.
  3. Week 3: Only four correct results and six incorrect results, but there were a lot of really wacky draws this week.
  4. Week 4: Another week with only four correct results, but also another week with a lot of wacky results.
  5. Week 5: Eight correct results, with another “incorrect” result when the ExpG gap between teams is .1 in a game that ended in a draw. So basically nine correct results.
  6. Week 6: Four correct results and a handful of close results that are to be expected. The biggest oddball result is the City v West Ham result.
  7. Week 7: Six correct results, but nearly all of them from matches where one side clearly dominated the other.
  8. Week 8: Six correct results, but a couple close ones as well where ExpG is separated by .1 and the match ended in a draw.
  9. Week 9: Six correct results plus a narrow miss on Spurs-Liverpool that is close enough we may not even want to call it a miss.

If you have questions about how this series works or about expected goals (ExpG) more generally, review our first post in this series.

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